While the detailed economic policy of Fidesz leaders cannot be foreseen from their declarations, it became obvious that the next government also will have a tight room for economic maneuvering.

The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) was criticized by both the Hungarian government and the opposition after increasing the interest rate. We expect the political pressure to increase in the future.

The political environment is becoming less and less advantageous to the government. Fidesz has started a campaign that is aimed at attacking the government on economic grounds.

Economic and political processes in Hungary are extensively influenced by voters’ anti-market and anti-competition sentiments. This has a considerably negative effect on competitiveness

Ferenc Gyurcsány's position has stabilized for the moment, it can only be maintained if he is successful in garnering parliamentary support for the proposals of the minority government.

The US subprime crisis will substantially reduce economic growth in the US and in Europe. As a result, Hungarian exports will likely decline and reduce the chances of a healthy economic growth.

The new government is not likely to initiate reforms and it will possibly enact popular measures to cater former MSZP voters. Ferenc Gyurcsány's has significantly weakened, but he has no alternative.

The consequences of the 9 March referendum and the ongoing coalition crisis have sharply raised the vulnerability of the Hungarian currency (

Following the referendum the position of the PM has become unstable, the coalition tensions have risen.Hence the risky moves of the Prime Minister in the last days.

While the results of the referendum is a big defeat of the government, reshuffle is not expected in the next few months, but policy changes will follow.

The referendum on 9th March is exceptional, since democratic countries rarely hold referenda on the abolition of point-of-delivery charges for health care and of university tuition fees.

Ferenc Gyurcsány tried to undermine the last push of Fidesz by announcing potentially popular initiatives, while Fidesz tries to win voters in the political centre.